Junior gold mining intelligence
The Gold Grid — 100-point scoring system for junior gold explorers
The Gold Gap — why acquirers pay $93/oz when margins justify $729/oz
A series on the structural pressures reshaping junior gold M&A — and why the gap between what acquirers pay and what margins justify is the widest in the dataset.
Gold's gross operating margin has expanded from roughly $500/oz to over $3,300/oz — a 6.6× reset that re-prices every ounce in the ground. Acquirer math has fundamentally changed.
$6.2B spent on gold exploration over five years produced only five major discoveries above 2 Moz. Grassroots share sits at a record-low 21%. When you can't find ounces, you have to buy them.
Newmont's 2025 reserves fell from 134.1 to 118.2 Moz — depleting 7.2 Moz while adding only 2.0 Moz through exploration. The world's largest gold miner is not replacing what it mines.
Central banks have bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold each year for three consecutive years — the strongest stretch since the 1960s. A structural demand floor that isn't reversing.
Mining M&A in 2025 was the strongest since the 2010–2012 super-cycle. Early 2026 set an 11-year high, with the bulk of deal value concentrated in gold and silver. The fifth force closes the loop.
Independent research published outside the Five Forces series — methodology deep dives, M&A analysis, and market structure pieces.
New standalone research will be published here. The next piece — The Buyer Readiness Index — is targeted for Q4 2026.
The Gold Grid is the Substack home for all Gilbert Analytics research. Free articles, full archive, no spam.
Subscribe on Substack →Alain Gilbert is a mechanical engineer and the founder of Gilbert Analytics. He writes The Gold Grid on Substack — independent research on junior gold valuation built around a 100-point scoring system and the M&A benchmark behind the Gold Gap framework.
The methodology is proprietary. The assumptions are public. Every number has a source.